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Sunday, May 04, 2008

Investment Nuggets by Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham, the stock market investor and economist, was the only investing legend who ignored the subjective aspects of equity analysis.

Graham was never interested in meeting managements and knowing what they were capable of doing or not doing. All he saw and studied were hard core numbers -the Balance Sheet. He wanted to buy cheap and under valued assets. Graham had also always stressed the diversification mantra. He professed that investors should buy companies when the current situation is unfavourable, the near-term prospects poor and the low price fully reflects the current pessimism.

Graham advised investors to keep their equity exposure within 75 per cent of their net assets. For the more adventurous investors, a 100 per cent exposure to equity could be considered in case the investor met the following guidelines:

Keep enough cash to take care of 12 months of your family expenses.

Do not panic and sell stocks but actually buy more stocks of solid stable companies as prices continued to slide during the bear markets.

You understand and are able to differentiate between hope and hype.

Below are his few quotable quotes:

“While enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street it almost invariably leads to disaster.”

“The fact that other people agree or disagree with you makes you neither right nor wrong. You will be right if your facts and your reasoning are correct.”

“Confronted with the challenge to distil the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety.”

“Many sceptics, it is true, are inclined to dismiss the whole procedure (chart reading) as akin to astrology or necromancy; but the sheer weight of its importance in Wall Street requires that its pretensions be examined with some degree of care.”

“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.”

“Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed.”

“The chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favourable business conditions.”

“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means…that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money’s worth for his purchase.”

Posted by toughiee at 5:45 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, May 03, 2008

‘Returns dip as motion rises’

Warren Buffett hasn't got around to writing a book detailing his investment philosophy till date. But, he does outline his investment philosophy in the letters he writes to the shareholders of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, every year. The nuggets of wisdom these letters offer are for investors at large to understand and remember.

In one such letter, for 2005, he wrote, "Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of a genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, "I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men." If he had not been traumatised by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases."

This is a basic law investors forget as markets keep going up. During a bull run, investors tend to look at the returns in the recent past and assume that future returns will be identical. They mistake probability for certainty and pump in more money into the stock market. And when the market falls, there is great pain.

In the letter for 2000, Buffett wrote, "The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money.

After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behaviour akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities... will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice.

But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party... During a bull run, stock markets offer astonishing returns in a short period of time as compared to other investments. This helps in attracting more money into the stock market and so the markets keep going up.

But is this really good for potential investors?

Well, Buffett had already answered this in his 1997 letter. "A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves. But now for the final exam:

If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall... Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."

Posted by toughiee at 6:22 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Hunt for The Bottom!

Interviews & Videos on CNBC

Posted by toughiee at 11:29 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Monday, April 07, 2008

What happened to India story?

Unfortunately, the Indian market is one of the worst performers even among emerging markets

by Manas Chakravarty and Mobis Philipose

Most stock markets across the world have bounced back pretty sharply after the panic caused by the Bear Stearns Companies Inc. collapse. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a low of 11,650 on 17 March and it’s up 8.2% from there. The MSCI World index is up even more, gaining 8.9% between its closings on 17 March and 4 April.

Many traders believe the measures taken to bail out Bear Stearns and the expansion of the collateral acceptable to the US Federal Reserve to include mortgage-backed securities marked a watershed in the markets. The credit markets have certainly pulled back from the brink. In the US, the spread between mortgage-backed securities and treasurys has narrowed from 200 basis points (bps) on 12 March, before the Bear Stearns bailout, to 170 bps. An index of investment-grade bond spreads, which was 190 bps on 12 March, is down to 111. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have come down from 6.13% to 5.88%. Yields on safe haven two-year treasurys have also dropped. Sure, spreads are still very high, but at least they’re going down.

The improvement in the credit markets sparked a rally on Wall Street and in most other markets. Risk appetite too has bounced back, evident from the fact that the MSCI Emerging Markets index is up 15% since its close on 17 March. While some of that could be on account of the rally in commodities and crude oil, even the MSCI EM Asia index is up 10%, more than the rise in the MSCI World index. As fund flow tracker EPFR Global points out, “Asia ex-Japan Equity Funds enjoyed their best week of the year in early April, absorbing a net $599 million (Rs2,396 crore), as investors found some value in China and continued to commit fresh money to Taiwan in the aftermath of the 22 March presidential election. China and Taiwan Country Funds took in $377 million and $191 million, respectively, while Singapore Country Funds absorbed another $110 million.”

Unfortunately, the Indian market is one of the worst performers even among emerging markets. MSCI India is up a mere 3.4% since 17 March. Indonesia, which is down 1.2% since 17 March, is the other market left out of the rally. Incidentally, both countries have recently seen a spike in inflation.

One reason for the Indian market’s underperformance could be relatively high valuations. That’s also seen from the fact that although the MSCI China index is up since 17 March, the Shanghai Composite index is actually lower since that date. High price-to-earnings markets are not in favour.

Perhaps it’s because the MSCI India index has outperformed the emerging markets index over the last five boom years—its annualized growth rate has been 35.28% compared with 27% for the MSCI EM index and 24.19% for EM Asia. But if we are to pay now for better performance in the past, the question is: wasn’t the outperformance supposed to be a reward for higher growth and for the great India story?

Posted by toughiee at 7:18 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Who should you trust your money with?

by Vijay L Bhambwani - DNA

It pays to remember some home truths about the market

Over the last couple of days, I heard some mutual fund heads talking on television about the current “compelling valuations” in the stock market and how investors should just buy and sit tight for a couple of months.

But when they were specifically asked what they themselves were buying, there was no clear answer forthcoming. Which brings me to the question, what / who / when should you trust with your money? My answer is simple —- yourself!

It is not that the people voicing their opinion in the public domain are dishonest. They just have to be wrong to make you poorer. They may also (more often than not ) omit to mention a few important facts (the valuations are compelling but I am not buying yet!). When it comes to survival, it is usually to each his own. History has recorded for posterity that humans have eaten their dead kith and kin in wars and other extenuating circumstances to survive.

Why should the markets be any different?

What are the markets anyway? Markets are a collection of all the emotions of the participants put together. Greed, fear, compassion and cruelty included. When it comes to self preservation, even murder is allowed by the courts in certain circumstances. Big-ticket players routinely lead retail players to slaughter houses. Cold bloodedly and calculatively. Books have been written on the subject, talk shows conducted by the dozens but retail players have yet to learn that lesson.

Going further, I have found that Indian markets are a lot more volatile compared with their developed counterparts as the participation has a higher component of emotions in the combination of intelligence and emotions. It should be the other way around, actually, because markets are mathematical, unemotional and unforgiving. Why should you be emotional? Why fight the markets in times of adversity and treat a losing trade as an ego slight?

Factually speaking, we are all susceptible to a feeling of vulnerability during taxing times. We seek someone to hold our hands during trying times and tell us that “all will be well”. We seek strength in numbers - in the fact that we are not alone in our belief of buy & hold. Unfortunately, the markets are readying us for mass murder.

Before you lose any more money in the markets, I suggest reading an excellent book -The Faber Report, by David Faber. The world-renowned CNBC US anchor warns investors against relying too much on voices in the public domain.

Faber has written very boldly —- dates, events and names of analysts, fund managers and managements who have (mis) advised investors in the media and taken contrarian positions in the market to profit from their crooked actions in doublequick time.

He also propagates the idea of upgrading one’s own skills to become self-reliant in the market place —- an idea that I totally agree with. Sometimes, our analysis seems to point towards an unpleasant development emerging in the markets.

Expert / public opinion seems to be pointing towards a reverse case scenario. Who do you trust? The answer is, both. Keep an eye on what is being said but keep doing your own due diligence. Sure, you may go wrong. At least you know you have yourself to blame. But do not form a habit of running away from bad news because it is unpalatable. In financial markets, pain is not in adversity but in the denial of that adversity’s existence.

Legend says ostriches bury their heads in sand when confronted by predators. While studies have shown no proof of this, the analogy is pertinent: they just become easy meat. Legend also has it that Red Indians kept their ears to the ground to hear the hoofs of horses carrying in white settlers. Maybe it’s time you started keeping your own ears to the ground rather than relying on “borrowed” ones.

After all, who can protect your wealth better than you yourself?

Posted by toughiee at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Thursday, March 06, 2008

A tsunami of liquidity

Source: Mint

We’ve heard a lot about how the credit crunch in the Western financial markets is affecting liquidity. Huge losses have punched a hole in the balance sheets of US and European banks and till such time they are able to repair their net worth, their ability to lend will remain impaired. That has hurt liquidity. But there’s a flip side to the story.

High oil prices have led to windfall gains by oil exporters. That money has to go somewhere. So far, what seems to be happening is that countries in the Persian Gulf region that have their currencies pegged to the dollar, are seeing a big rise in inflation as their central banks mop up dollars and release the local currency into their money markets. Foreign exchange reserves held by these countries are rising.

Moreover, the magnitude of the rise in dollar gains is truly staggering. According to a research note from Morgan Stanley, A Petrodollar Tsunami Warning by Stephen Jen and Charles St-Arnaud, the market value of annual cross-border oil flows is around $2 trillion (Rs80 trillion), evenly split among Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC), non-GCC and non-Opec oil ­exporters. While part of the oil receipts—Morgan Stanley’s estimate is 10%—will be invested by these countries within their borders, in infrastructure and the like, the bulk of the windfall will find its way into global financial markets. The note says that about half of it is likely to be invested by sovereign wealth funds, with the rest being direct investments in financial assets. The note ends with the dramatic flourish: “A tsunami is coming.”

At the moment, much of the money is going either into US bonds or, through sovereign wealth funds, into US financial institutions. But with the slowdown in the US and a falling dollar, it makes sense to diversify holdings. Indian markets should benefit, just as Indian engineering firms are already profiting from the boom in West Asia.

Posted by toughiee at 10:28 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

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