Archive for April, 2007
The Futility of Market Forecast
Is it worth listening to market forecasters?
Predicting markets is a favorite pastime for many people. But, in this report, it is proved that listening to market forecasters especially those who appear on business news channels is a futile exercise.
Any comments, please write to toughiee@gmail.com
Click here to download the report.
Economy: It’s Getting Hot Out Here!
All indications are that the economy is overheating. But take a closer look, and things do not appear to be so bad.
by Manas Chakravarty – BWI
After four years of sizzling growth, signs of strain have started showing up in the economy. Inflation is well above the comfort zone, real estate prices have shot up and the rupee has recently touched nine-year highs against the dollar. Large parts of the country have to go without power for hours and the country’s creaking infrastructure is clearly finding it difficult to cope with the 9 per cent-plus rates of growth seen in the past couple of years. These signs of overheating have been worrying the Reserve Bank of India, which has been slowly but steadily raising its policy rate and increasing the cash reserve ratio — funds that banks must park with the central bank — in an attempt to arrest the runaway credit growth.
Click here for the full story.
Random Readings
Random Readings:
- Warren Buffett on the future of newspapers
- You cannot manage inflation well in the long-term: ICRA
- Grey market brokers give a new twist to IPO tale
- India warned of US economic slowdown
- Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well. – Warren Buffett
Expect markets to be up 20% from current levels: Enam
In his view, 2007 is a defensive year where people want to hide but in the next quarter or so, the more aggressive people will start getting valuations where one can buy stocks, which can give 50% upside on a 12-month basis. However, he feels that one will not find that in blue chips, which are recognized as being stable and secular but in other stocks.
Click here for the full article.
Stockmarkets: Going Steady
The BSE Sensex is expected to rally once fourth quarter results for FY2007 are declared, as it has in the past.
Investors are eagerly awaiting the 2007 March quarter results, which are expected this month. While it is true that the BSE Sensex has risen, volumes have been disappointing — an indication of the market uncertainty.
But if the past is any guide, investors need not worry too much. During April, July and October 2006 and January 2007, the months when quarterly results were declared, the Sensex rose by 6.8 per cent, 1.6 per cent, 6.2 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively.
Click here for the full story.
Random Readings
Random Readings:
- Foreign exchange reserves top $200 bln for first time
- Infosys earnings jump 70 per cent
- FIs, foreign funds line up for 41% stake in BSE
- Is Infy’s Q4 show really rocking?
- See no risk on Bharti’s 4-6 qtrs’ margins: Edelweiss
- Sensex currently at fair value: BRICS
- IIP shows rate nibble in consumer goods
- Interview With Jim Rogers: ‘The Best Place To Be Is In Commodities’
- Textile: Offering value?
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FII kitty value surges 129% in 3 yrs
Random Thought:
- Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth. – Warren Buffett
Stockmarkets: Plugging The Hole
India’s equity market infrastructure, touted to have reached global standards with electronic trading, rolling settlements, a growing derivatives market and a smooth clearing and settlement process, has had one major chink in its armour — the absence of a functional securities lending and borrowing system. That lacuna will be remedied this year, thanks to Sebi’s initiatives and a green signal from finance minister P. Chidambaram in this year’s Budget speech.
Click here for the full story.
Whichever way it goes…The US wins!
Click on the image for clearer view
London-based GaveKal Research, in late 2003 and early 2004 did some research on what it called was ‘The Circle of Manipulation’. At the time, it described the action in the financial markets with the following diagram. Three years later, GaveKal said, it could be argued that not much has changed
Random Readings:
- Emerging markets to be best performers in 3 years: Survey
- Economists see GDP growth tapering towards 7.8-8.3 per cent
- Media & entertainment will be Rs 1-trillion industry by 2011
- Re at 8-yr high as banks sell dollars
- Exchange Traded Funds demystified!
- SEZs back on track, cut to size
- Buy BHEL: DSP Merrill Lynch
Random Thought:
- Don’t mistake activity for achievement – Warren Buffett
